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At first, the former US president gave the impression to embrace a firm stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing warnings of "severe ramifications" in August in case Vladimir Putin persisted hindering truce negotiations, the former president eventually enacted considerable penalties on the Russian biggest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move significantly impacted the Russian leader's capacity to finance his war effort in the region.

However, via his newly presented 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine, reportedly created by American and Russian diplomats excluding Ukraine's or EU input, Trump has clearly reverted to his favorable to Russia approach.

Favoring Aggression

This proposal would effectively favor the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while putting the country's political freedom in jeopardy. Although bold declarations that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", much of the proposal in reality weaken that same sovereignty. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his business background, Trump seems to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a mere land disagreement, like giving Putin a section of Ukraine's territory will appease the ruler. However, Putin's war is not simply about occupying a destroyed swath of economically weakened land in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's clear desire to destroy it so it stops acts as an enticing standard for the Russian people of the responsible governance that Putin's deepening authoritarian rule withholds them.

Border Surrenders

Although maintaining in position the currently divided oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's proposal would force Ukraine to give up all of this eastern territory. Beyond benefiting Russia with territory that its military have been failed to occupy in over a decade of conflict, this concession would leave Ukraine's defenses critically undermined.

Donetsk is the site of Ukraine's much-vaunted "defensive line", the entrenched defensive positions that constitute a essential obstacle to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these fortifications, giving Putin a unobstructed way to the capital should he eventually decide to renew the hostilities.

Military Reductions

Furthermore, in a step that would enable additional fighting easier for Russia, Trump would force Ukraine to cut the scale of its armed forces from their existing large number troops to a cap of this lower number. Importantly, the plan places no such constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a gesture to Putin's attempts to portray the nation's democratically elected administration as radicals, the plan states: "All radical belief system and actions must be rejected and prohibited." Seemingly to emphasize this element, it demands that "The nation will hold elections in three months" of a truce. However, Trump places no requirement that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by allowing democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Assurances

Certainly, the proposal includes Russia promise not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "establish in legislation its position of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". However considering that Putin has breached similar agreements in the previous instances – including the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to respect Ukraine's borders in exchange for surrendering its historical nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a handback of occupied areas in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – why should we trust this commitment this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on external defense commitments. While the proposal promises a "decisive coordinated defense action" if Russia restart its invasion, and includes that "The nation will receive dependable defense commitments", the particulars vary from unclear to alarming. The proposal would not only block Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit alliance nations from deploying military personnel on Ukraine's soil, effectively preventing the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly commanded by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Putin from rebuilding his weakened forces, restocking, and attacking again.

International Reaction

Another parallel deal apparently would provide the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any later "serious, planned, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault jeopardizing the stability and safety of the Western nations." This implies a armed reaction. Yet in contrast to a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's primary defense against additional Russian aggression – the credibility of the parallel accord would rely on the commitment of Western powers, like the US administration, to act through arms to Russia's hostilities, a response they have {not