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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion following the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday saw its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another state and capture its head of state – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the headless administration are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.