A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
