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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's protracted campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to host the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help speed up the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries feared a summit hindered from the leadership if his government led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. This attempt is justified.